Futures Wheel
Futures Wheel is a method of working out graphical visualization of direct and indirect future consequences of a particular change or development, developed by scientist Jerome C. Glenn in the 1970s. It consists of five steps
Identify change by putting the central object in the middle of a piece of paper. It can be a trend, something that happened, an issue or a solution.
Map (five to seven) first-order consequences and impacts of the central object.
For each of the first-order consequences map three second-order impacts. Check if any third-order consequences and impacts spring to mind.
Analyze and prioritize consequences
Formulate actions
Manao Scenario Building
Manao Scenario Building is a method pioneered by Wendy Schultz. It also uses Futures Wheels, and implements them in a broader scenario building practice that explores colliding issues that lead the way to diverging futures. Manao Scenario Building maximizes difference from the present day (and the past).
