Designing the future using science fiction
“The world is made twice: first in our mind, and next in reality.”
~ (searching for original citation, uttered by Merlijn Twaalfhoven, composer, and author Stephen Covey)
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Unprecedented and sometimes frightening developments are taking place on the world stage. The two-and-a-half-year-long COVID crisis, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the extreme impacts of climate change are just a few examples. Extreme climate change isn’t stopping anytime soon, and mass migration and systemic inequality force us to critically review our systems and ways of life. Can we move beyond the crises and envision more hopeful futures?
Many of us have clear visions of what kind of world we don’t want to live in, but are struggling to imagine the kind of world we would live in - let alone how to build that world. We need new narratives to illuminate what’s broken in our society and hands-on solutions for a more sustainable, equal and resilient world.
This is where futures’ visions and scenario’s come in. Paradoxically, the most reliable method to envision and plan for futures, isn’t just studying and extrapolating scientific facts, historical developments, psychology and demography, but by building stories beyond our wildest imagination.
Telling stories is as old as (human) time
Telling stories is the oldest way of sharing wisdom and knowledge. Stories are thought experiments that cut through contemporary interests and structures to imagine an alternative world. Stories help us understand the current system but also provide the tools to investigate how that world is changing and reveal solutions to work to a different futures.
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A methodical way to build a story that explores the future and the impact of future technology and developments on society is the science fiction prototype. The method is coined by professor Brian David Johnson, from the Arizona State University’s School for the Future of Innovation in Society, and has the goal of creating a short story, movie, or comic with one or more main characters, based specifically on (scientific) facts for the purpose of exploring the implications, effects and ramifications of science or technology. Science fiction prototyping is not about forecasting the future.
It is a fallacy to plan for ‘the future’ (singular). We need to be prepared for multiple futures (plural) and build into our strategies a flexibility that allows us to move resilient from the present moment towards the future. Being aware of the different paths the future might take, leads to more realistic and flexible strategies that will be more successfully implemented.
What sci-fi prototyping is not
Sci-fi prototyping allows us to creatively explore and iterate how technology and social developments can shape and be shaped by the people who use it and explore its implications on the everyday lives of people. This makes it different from forecasting the future or trendwatching, although analysing trends is a big part of prototyping futures.
It is also different from scenario building, that results in a description of a future situation, often using (quantitative) data resulting from extrapolation studies, i.e. the climate scenario’s from IPCC, confusingly called ‘Climate Stories’.
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The difference between a story and a scenario is the narrative arc. Stories are built around a main character the reader will sympathise with. Fictional stories have a kind of creative freedom that scenario’s do not have. This freedom allows creators ánd readers to explore the impact of technologies and developments on the daily lives of people (and more-than-human entities too, more on that later) and on society as a whole. It raises questions and tries to answer them, that have no place in fact-based, objective scenarios.
Sci-fi prototyping 101
The classic sci-fi prototyping method created by Brian David Johnson contains five steps.
Step 1: Pick your science and build your world. Here writers pick an issue they want to explore, set up the world (what does it look/smell/taste like in the future?) and introduce characters and locations. The goal is to make this future world feel as real as possible.
Step 2: The scientific inflection point. Here we introduce some tension and drama: what happens when we place our technology or development in this world we just build? What is the effect on the daily lives of our characters?
Step 3: Ramifications of the developments on characters. We imagine how our characters (which might be human, or other-than human) respond to the developments and how their lives are changed. Pushing the plot to the extreme here.
Step 4: The character inflection point. After pushing the characters to the extreme, what do they need to do to survive and thrive again? What ramifications on the characters has the story laid bare? Johnson talks specifically only of human ramifications. I argue for a broader perception of characters, including other-than-human characters, such as animals, but also non-living entities such as rivers and mountains that are getting legal rights and voices in more and more places, including the Netherlands.
Step 5: What did we learn? It is important to conclude the prototyping exercise with an exploration of the previous step. How has the world changed? What’s next?
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An example of sci-fi prototyping
Radical Ocean Futures a sci-fi prototype that does not explore the future implications of a technology, but rather the futures of a non-technological development: the deterioration of our planet’s oceans. The project, funded by the Swedish Research Council Formas and started by (than) PhD student Andrew Merrie urgently and vividly calls for new narratives to #SaveOurOcean and guide efforts to transform towards more sustainable ocean governance. The project blends art and science and merges scientific fact with creative speculation. The multimedial four short stories or ‘radical futures’ are based on scientific fact to “allow multiple entry points and stimulate the imagination”, with its written texts, artwork by Simon Stålenhag and audio compilations.
Concluding: science-fiction prototypes are imagined laboratories based on (scientific) fact, that challenge creators ánd readers to critically reflect on the impact of science and emerging technologies and on the social and emotional responses of the world - including themselves. It offers a great tool to envision possible and hopeful futures, and could be an important first step towards sustainable solutions, resilient strategies and innovative tools to turn those imagined futures into lived realities.